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Retail’s Renaissance – True Story of Store Openings/Closings

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Product Overview

Date of PublicationAugust 10, 2019
FormatAdobe PDF
LicenseEnterprise-Wide Internal - Subject to Fair Use License
GeographyNorth America

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For the third straight year the mainstream press has been pushing the false narrative that retail is dying.  And for the third year we produce a report that debunks that narrative.

This research looks at 1,660 retailers with 50 or more stores.  We highlight what is growing and what is shrinking and why it is so easy to cherry-pick bad news when the overall story is positive.  We outline store count increases and decreases, and also key trends driving retail.  Next, we outline why companies that are closing stores or going out of business are doing so.

For the detailed list of the retailers including store openings/closings by retail chain from 2017-2019 and then forecast for 2020 – we make this available HERE.

Finally, we talk about what malls and traditional retailers must do to change and the impact of Amazon Prime has on behaviors in store.  Online is growing fast, but we forecast that 81% of all retail will still have a store component by 2021 either as traditional retailing at stores or online fulfillment.

 

 

This is a free research report thanks to our sponsors.  Please just add to cart and download to see content.

This is a free research report thanks to our sponsors.  Please just add to cart and download to see content.

Why is this data different than other data reported?

There are three primary reasons that our data may be different than others that has been quoted.

  1. Larger data set.  While others look at a targeted list that is heavily focused on mall-based retail, we look at 9 different retail segments over 1,660 private and public retailers with 50 or more stores.
  2. The approach.  All retailers open and close stores each year.  The main point for each retailer is whether their store numbers are increasing or decreasing.  This approach allows us to evaluate the entire industry.  So for each retailer we look at store counts at the end of the previous year, end of the current year and statements on plans by the end of year.  This means that in some cases someone announces they are going to open 100 stores…some of those may be in this year, some next year.  We split these to the appropriate year.  Others tracking would put any announced numbers in the year they were announced regardless of when those openings or closings might happen.  So our numbers show the total number of net stores opening and closing.
  3. Others count every closing and every opening.  This is fine if you have a broad view of retail.  However, it’s unfair if your focus is primarily on the mall.  Less than 40% of all retail is mall-based, so this data invariably shows many more closings than openings in raw numbers.  What is missing in this approach is a view of the chains.  Private equity, debt, and over expansion by a certain number of retailers skews what is happening to all the companies in the segment.  By looking at things on a chain-based level, looking at the net of opens and closings per chain, you see how many chains are doing well and how many are not.  So even though apparel stores have closed 13,000 stores, 2.7 chains are actually opening stores for every one that is closing stores.  Bottom line, our approach shows whether it is a retailer specific issue or an industry issue.  And in every segment, although we have too many properties, those that are failing have too much debt, opened way too many stores than were sustainable or refused to modernize for today’s consumer.  It shows we have a retailer problem, not a retail problem.

How did you choose the 1,660 retailers?

The basis of this broad research is our listing from our Sophia Data Service

 

This product is free. We would ask that you adhere to our license agreement with regards to quoting sections of the research. Our full license agreement may be found below.

IHL Group License and Fair Use Agreement

All of IHL Group’s generally available research are electronic licenses and can be shared freely within the purchasing organization and wholly owned subsidiaries. We only ask that this information not be shared with partners or others outside the purchasing company without authorization from IHL Group. The license does not extend to joint ventures or other partnerships. If the relationship is not a wholly-owned subsidiary, then both parties would need a license.

Practically, this implies the following:

  1. The purchasing company can use the data and research worldwide internally as long as the international organizations are wholly owned subsidiaries of the purchasing company.
  2. The data or any research cannot be distributed in whole or in part to partners or customers without express written approval from IHL Group.
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