
There are a few news events that act as positive inflection points. Malcom Gladwell called them "Tipping Points", times when things just take off, the momentum of a trend launches to success. Most often we learn about them after the fact, in hindsight. I may be going out on a limb today, but mark this day as a tipping point for the retail industry globally.
Marks and Spencer Group plc announced an agreement to enter into a joint venture with Reliance Retail. For those of you not familiar with Reliance, they are an incredibly fast growing retail chain in India currently with 614 stores ranging from C-store, petrol stations, to Apple stores and other specialty formats. They are on track to build 20,000 locations across India in the coming years in 32 different retail formats. Their goal is to do for retail what Dubai Ports World is doing for ports, resorts, and other properties. It is by far the most aggressive growth plan in retail.
Why is this announcment so significant? Because it is the first time a major global retailer has been able to make a significant investment in an existing Indian player...particularly one with huge aspirations. Up until this point India has vigorously resisted foreign direct investment (FDI). The opposition is led by small retailers who believe that foreign competitors will run them out of business and cause massive unemployment. Just recently the government opened its retail market to 51% FDI. Today, Marks & Spencer purchased 51% of Reliance Retail and announced 50 M&S branded stores in the initial plan, but it also allows them to tap into a network that plans to grow to 20,000 outlets in the next few years. In this one bold step, M&S became the prohibitive favorite to win in the retail game in the second largest country in the world.
To give you an idea of the retail growth opportunity in India here are some stats. Fifteen percent of the world's population lives in India. In the year 2000, there were 3 shopping malls in the entire country. By 2010 there are expected to be 600! There are 40 cities that have populations over 1 million people. Yet retail is notoriously un-chained. Of the top 10 retailers in India, 3 of those chains have less than 50 stores.
Today retailing in India is akin to the wild, wild west. M&S made a bold play today by teaming with the country's most aggressive retail chain. They are staking their claim, and today I believe retail in India hit a tipping point.